Nimmy’s Experiment with Blogging

An attempt to learn something new..and share something different

Archive for October, 2008

Why does Government push Hajj subsidy down the throats of Indian muslims?

Posted by Nimmy on October 29, 2008

 

Its time for Hajj and Hajj subsidy is again in news .All these years,I have been deluded to think that Hajj Subsidy is a great privilege or discount from the government..Further reading into this a few days ago,made me really shocked to know that this is merely a political gimmick and that the real drama behind this ‘subsidy’ is all about vote-bank and about securing money to AirIndia..

 

Before we go further into the drama-script, a few reminders..

 

Muslims want Haj subsidies scrapped

 The clamour among Indian Muslims to abolish the Hajj subsidy is getting stronger. Several Muslim organisations are now pleading that India adopt the Malaysian model of Tabung Haji because the subsidy has “harmed” the community more than it has benefited them. Imam Ahmed Bukhari of Delhi’s Jama Masjid submitted a memorandum to the PM, demanding the Haj Act be amended to end Air India’s monopoly. To scrap the subsidy, they have cited the Quran, which says Haj is compulsory for only those who can afford it. 

‘Haj subsidy unIslamic, use that money on our education, health’

 Several Muslim intellectuals, religious scholars and leaders are suggesting that the Government scrap the Haj subsidy and spend the money instead on schools, healthcare and other basic infrastructure for the welfare of the community. Some even describe the subsidy as “vote-bank politics” and say it’s unIslamic to undertake any obligation during Haj. S Q R Ilyas, convenor of the Babri Masjid Committee and a senior member of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), call the Hajj subsidy “a sop to gain political mileage. “There is no doubt that it is unIslamic and one should not be under any obligation while undertaking Haj. But we want travel to be made an open competition. We should be allowed to place bulk orders with the airline which quotes the lowest price for a ticket. As of now, we are bound by the Government to travel by Air India.” Mufti Nazeer-ud-Din, who runs Kashmir’s biggest seminary, echoes “We should be allowed have a separate institution to regulate Haj with very little influence from the Government. The Centre should channelise the subsidy amount for the welfare of Muslims.”  He also demanded global tenders for Haj flights “to make the pilgrimage cheaper” rather than being “monopolised by Air India.”…

 

 

Party Vice-President Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi had, in fact, slammed the subsidies as the “biggest fraud on the country” and said it was being done to make up for the huge losses incurred by the Air India. Observers recall how the Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal and the then Saudi Ambassador to India A. Rahman N. Alohaly had told an Indian delegation led by the then External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh that any state subsidy for Haj pilgrimage is wrong.“Our ulemas will help you in explaining to your people that the subsidy goes against the spirit of the Shariat,” Al-Faisal himself had stated.”

 

 

Haj subsidy was introduced in the 70’s to provide a temporary cushion against a sudden increase in airfares following the fuel price hike.Earlier,pilgrims went by ship and later,sea travel was stopped and consequently,government subsidized the huge difference in expense between travel by sea and air.Later on,subsidies were increased as to compensate hike in accommodation and flight ticket charges..And now it has harmed the Indian muslim community more badly than the intended goodness.

 

 

Refer to one instance when The Haj Committee of Uttar Pradesh has decided to change its loyalties from Air India to Saudi Airlines for sending pilgrims to Jeddah, due to the step-motherly treatment meted out to the Hajis. With nearly 30,000 pilgrims undertaking Haj pilgrimage every year from the state, the decision is likely to cause a revenue loss of around Rs 50 crore to Air India. In short,it is making, huge profits by one way and returning part of the profit in a more attractively palatable way to Muslims maintain the vote bank. More than one lac Muslims in the country go for Haj pilgrimage every year and most of them are poor, who keep aside their savings of whole life only for Haj.  Air India charges arbitrary fares from the Hajj pilgrims.  Today, we get more than 50 percent rebate in Airfares on domestic and international air-routes, when we book a air ticket in advance by three months.  But Air India is charging more fare from the Haj pilgrims even when they deposite the air fare in advance by one year with the Haj Committee. Let there be open international tenders for air lines to carry Haj Pilgrims in which case we can totally remove the subsidy, at the same time abolish all subsidies to every community in India under the banner of true secularism. If an independent audit is done they will perhaps discover that the govt airlines were making loss on all international sectors except the Gulf. This is very unfortunate considering that most of the people working in Gulf are quite poor even after their immigrant salaries.

 

 

Away from religious interpretations, secular principles and political analysis, there is also a financial aspect which makes the Hajj subsidies a butt of ridicule. Notwithstanding the subsidy, an intending Indian pilgrim still has to put together at least Rs 65,000-Rs 70,000 for Hajj. By what logic can anyone argue that a person who can afford Rs 60,000-Rs 70,000 is incapable of raising few more thousands, which constitute the subsidy?

 

 

What’s more, today, there are hundreds of tour operators who offer an all-inclusive Hajj tour package for the same amount without any subsidies whatsoever, and also earn a profit. Hajj Subsidy was given to those traveling through Hajj Committee. Every year Haj Committee sends around 60 to 70 thousand Indians to Hajj. Hajj Committee (by law) is forced to purchase these 60 to 70 thousand air tickets from Air India only.The Hajj subsidy was on these air ticket prices and hence was nothing but a discount on bulk air ticket purchases. But for political reasons it was given a name as a Subsidy and hence was meant to look like a favor on Indian Muslims.

  

 

The Hajj committee too needs to be reengineered.. We have lot of cozy fellows eating out poor man’s and government’s money.Maybe a transparent system of selection the committee members could be established..Recall a case against Hajj committee for fraud According to M Yunus, general secretary of the Tanzeem, “A return ticket to Jeddah costs Rs 21,000. But the Civil Aviation ministry, which booked the hajis on Air India charged them Rs 32,606. Of this, Rs 20,606 came from the Haj subsidy, the government provides. The ministry thus made a neat Rs 33 crore on 70,236 tickets it issued last year.’’. According to Rana Siddiqui, the petitioner’s lawyer, the Haj Committee also made Rs 28 crore on the foreign exchange it gives pilgrims.

 

 

 

Lastly,I feel odd when I hear people ranting “Muslims doing pilgrimage at Hindu’s money”..I didn’t know that muslims in India don’t pay tax…Also,I wonder why BJP didn’t bother to stop this ‘appeasement’ when they were in power..Bottom line is,every political party is keen on keeping the matter alive so that this ’subsidy’ remains a never ending bash..I request all of you to see for yourself what is the intention behind all this..

 

 

 

I request all fellow indian muslims to grab this opportunity to bring an end to this drama..

 

 

Read an article from timeofindia..

 

Unless one is particularly predisposed against Muslims, any discussion on Haj subsidy should be done after considering whether the State has adhered to this secular credo.

 

Pursuing the philosophy of sarva dharma sambhav, the government has been investing resources on supporting the religious practices of all communities. For example, everytime Kumbh Mela is held, the State builds infrastructure for the pilgrims.

 

It organises Amarnath and Mansarovar yatras. And doles out compensation for pilgrims who lose their life during pilgrimage. The railways run Tirth Yatra specials to take pilgrims to different dhams. During Chhat Puja, munic-ipal authorities in Bihar clean up water bodies for people to take a dip.

 

Trains run from different parts to take kawariyas for a holy dip at Devgarh. Every year, the government creates facilities for Ramlila. The district magistrate — a representative of the secular State — fires the arrow to set Ravana’s effigy ablaze.

 

All this is done at a great cost to the exchequer. Except for the Sikhs, and to some extent Jains, whose own religious bodies spend on the processions they take out to commemorate anniversaries of gurus, all other communities depend on the government to support their pilgrimages and festivities.

 

Curiously no objection is raised against them. No one questions when the government doles out huge amounts for the creation of infrastructure for Kumbh Melas. Nor is any hullabaloo raised when it announces compensation for dead pilgrims.

 

In comparison, a lot of noise is raised against the Haj subsidy, which is actually a subsidy to Air India rather than to the Muslim pilgrims per se. It seems as if in this country Muslims have no claim over State resources.

 

After all, they are equal citizens of India. Indeed, some people do see Muslims as lesser citizens, so they want the Haj subsidy to go. Such squint-eyed vision has no place in a secular state.

 

As long as the State continues to act on the premise that it is its business to be involved in the religious affairs of its citizens, withdrawal of the subsidy would seriously compromise its secular credentials.

 

Until the government withdraws completely from religious realm and leaves the communities to foot the bill for their own activities, Muslims are as much entitled to favoured treatment as others.

 

P.S:

Read more

A report released by Press Information Bureau in December 2006

Haj Subsidy, Anyone?

Posted in Islamic Thoughts, World Around | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 23 Comments »

Some thoughts on comments on ‘Hindu terrorism”

Posted by Nimmy on October 26, 2008

Hi friends..Sorry for not replying to any comments..I am little ill and hence find it difficult to sit for long..Though I badly feel like writing a new post on latest news,I am not able to do,as lot of reading is not yet done from my part..A quick run ..

  

According to reports, the state police had initially detained five people. After a preliminary probe, two were let off. What came as a shock to investigating officials was that of the three detained, one was a woman, Pragya Singh, aged between 25 and 30 years. Singh is believed to be a former member of the Durga Vahini, the women’s wing of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad.

 

 

After the arrest of a once-fiesty sadhvi with links to saffron groups, the Malegaon bomb blast case has taken another serious turn with the possible involvement of ex-Armymen,one a retired major.

 

Post on my views pushed to a later day..Meanwhile please give me little time of yours and notice the flow of thoughts among people,may it be a minority or majority..In fact,I am having a good laugh reading comments section in TOI ..Sharing a few of the laudable ones . 

 

I seriously doubt if a sadhvi was really involved and all this could be fabricated by UPA. Hindus normally do not indulge in such violence. -**cough cough**  :-) -Nimmy

 

Thiis all the conspiracy which has been created by congrees and their allaince just to divert the issue from development they are making this kind of unwanted things, if their is hindu terrorist group, why are they bring now in front of the people when the elections are in front, i think UPA is trying to creat sympathy. But they dont know that people are taking them serious this time, their is no hindu terrorist groups,it is just to divert the attention for the people..-hmm..wonder what this person had to say a  few days ago -Nimmy

 

Ridiculous .. Its just the political vendetta of the Congress Govt .It just shows how mean and cheap this Govt can go to satisfy its allies like amar singh and lalu Prasad-hmm..maybe you need to look every incident through these lenses..Neither Congress,not Lallu+team,not BJP is your robinhood..They they crave for is power..Their wiseh breed on our agonies..If India becomes a peaceful and harmonious nation,how will these people play drama.. -Nimmy

 

This is a conspiracy against the Hindu organizations. This is thxe last thing we could have expected from UPA govt. Jai Bharat-Oh yeah,I wonder why there happens a pro-Hindu happening everytime BJP is on weak side..and oh yeah ,hindus alone and nobody else are victims of conspiracies,aren’t they ..lol -Nimmy

 

Its amazing how police make awesome progress in this case but not in the Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Delhi blasts..I wonder why? -oh,so you want all or none cases to be resolved !! :-) -Nimmy

 

What we were afraid of has happened. Ethnic cleansing of Hindus by Muslim terrorists and UPA govt’s inability to protect Hindus has led to Hindus taking laws in their hands.-You indeed have issues..I pray people like you ,no matter which religion they belong to,die very soon of leprosy ,before you fill or pour your venom into others hearts duh -Nimmy

 

In India, the police, especially that in a UPA controlled state, would do anything if paid-small correction,”No matter which party rules,police will do anythign for money..I pray to God no instance happens in my life where I need police help or assistance.. -Nimmy

 

Media should be just informatics rather than decisive. Media should not encroach the area of judiciary. We should wait for the outcome because media/party is targeting directly to some national party.-Good that  you felt it now..Better late than never..And yeas,pls tell me what are you doing to do about those racist and venemous words said over half-said news ,days before .A criminal is a criminal,Period..But branding a person as terrorist as soon as they are arrested in suspision alone isn’t fair right?Or is your logic applicable in ‘paricular news’ alone?-Nimmy

  

Ho!.. What a great enthusiasm shown by police when it comes to hindu as a terrorist!- :-) lol…No comments..Peace -Nimmy

 

 

My request to all my readers..Please don’t mix religion when it comes to criminals..Neither Congress nor BJP,neither SIMI nor VHP are here to save us ,nor are they our robinhoods..All they intend is to act as a choke-starter and ignite fire in our hearts..The references to ethnic cleansing of hindus/muslims, war on Islam/Hindusim, etc etc are terms intented to mess up our fragile minds and make us pawns to achieve their ultimate political or whatever the hell their intention is.Don’t fall their prey..What our nations need today is you and me holding hands and standing together against these terrorists/criminals..Instead,if we try to find conspiracies and say that “My group doesn’t have violent elements” ,it is not going to lead us anywhere..Instead,it will make our life and our nation a disaster..We have stood up together in times of happiness and worries,lets keep doing that and show these pro- religious/well wishers that, we don’t need them..If we don’t do it today,maybe we can’t do it anyday..Until election is over ,we need to make sure neither we,nor  immediate people are ‘ignited’ by these choke-starters.

 

 

Jai Hind..Peace to all..

Posted in World Around | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 27 Comments »

Migrant issues – Qatar and Maharashtra,a comparison.

Posted by Nimmy on October 23, 2008

Lately almost all newspapers and blogs are loaded with discussions on drama scripts ,directed by Raj Bahaiyya.Although it’s been long since I was itching to write about him,I refrained as I don’t want him to get more publicity,even through my small blog..For some odd reason,well, maybe because of overdose of Raj news,I thought of sharing something that may seem to have ‘some’ relation to what Raj Bhaiyya is saying..

 

 

I take you to a nation called Qatar,a small place with an area of just 11,437 km²(Kerala is 38,863 km²) . After centuries-long domination by the Ottoman and British empires, Qatar became an independent state on September 3, 1971.Before the discovery of oil, the economy was focused on fishing and pearling. After the introduction of the Japanese cultured pearl onto the world market in the 1920s and 1930s, Qatar’s pearling industry faltered. However, the discovery of oil, beginning in the 1940s, completely transformed the state’s economy. Now the country has a high standard of living, with many social services offered to its citizens and all the amenities of any modern state.

 

 

Besides ethnic Arabs, much of the population migrated from various nations to work in the country’s oil industry.Expatriates form the majority of Qatar’s residents. The petrochemical industry has attracted people from all around the world. Most of the expatriates come from South Asia and from non-oil-rich Arab states. In July 2007, the country had a growing population of approximately 907,229 people of whom approximately 350,000 were believed to be citizens .Because a large percentage of the expatriates are male, Qatar has a heavily skewed sex ratio, with 1.8528 males per female.

The population in the current GCC states has grown more than eight times during 50 years; to

be exact,from 4 million in 1950 to 40 million in 2006, which marks one of the highest rates of the

population growth in the world. This increase has not been caused primarily by a natural growth of

indigenous population but by the influx of foreign workers.For every single national,there are three forigeners here.Isn’t that really disturbing when the ecomony as a whole is taken into consideration?Can you belive that the population of expatriate Indians in Qatar stood at 419,096 as of July 31, more than double that of the local Qatari population!!!

 

 

Since the discovery of oil, these countries, lacking a local workforce, have been employing a large expatriate labor force. That process has had a very significant impact on the economy, politics, and the social structure of the GCC states. Remittances from migrant labor back to their home exceed the value of regional trade in goods as well as official capital flows.

 

Migrants are outsiders, period. Such emigration has generally been supported by the governments of home-countries to ease the pressure on labor markets, reduce unemployment, and accelerate development. More plainly said, governments like ours who are not competent or responsible enough to provide for its own citizens, pack  people to far away countries where they can earn  a living and will sent money back to homeland and again the government is happy when it receives foreign money..Many of our states(Kerala for instance) have this oil-money as backbone of internal economy ,the money sent home by people who work as slaves here.Not to divert from the main topic, not only that government is happy that there is less employment issues ,but also there is lot of  incoming money and thus development. So for them it is double dhamaka..What about the economy on the other end?

 

 

 

The migration of Asians and non Arabs to GCC countries have disrupted their societies. In contrary to Europe and like places, where foreign workers have only complemented the national workforce, usually by filling lower-status jobs, in the GCC states they have become the primary, dominant labor force in most sectors of the economy and the government administration.How good is that in the interest of Qatar as a country?

 

 

 

This development has posed security, economic, social and cultural threats to the local population . As a consequence, to maintain a highly privileged position of the nationals,numerous restrictions have been imposed: the sponsorship system, to limit the duration of foreigners’ stay, curbs on citizenship rights of migrants etc. However, many of these measures have not brought the expected results.The employers usually prefer to keep workers who have already gained some local experience rather than bring in the new ones. Moreover, importing a new worker involves additional costs to employers. As a result, the average period of time that foreign workers spend in the GCC countries continues to extend, and the number of ‘almost permanent’ foreign workers has increased.As the unemployment among nationals began to grow, which was a phenomenon unheard of in the past, the GCC governments decided to embark on the formulation of labor market strategies to improve this situation, to create sufficient employment opportunities for nationals, and to limit the dependence on the expatriate labor (the so-called localization, nationalization or indigenization of labor, depending on the country referred to as: Saudization, Omanization, Emiratization, etc.).

 

 

A number of measures have been proposed to achieve these objectives:some professions have

been reserved as ‘for nationals only’,the employment quotas for nationals and expatriates have been introduced in certain professions, wage subsidies and state retirement plans for nationals in the private sector were established parallel to fees and charges on the foreign labor to make it less competitive Private companies are expected to maintain certain percentage of nationals. Moreover, large efforts have been made to improve the education and training of nationals. Nevertheless, all these measures have so far brought only limited results. Only the public sector has become successfully nationalized. In the private sector, the localization is still very low.

 

 

The employment of foreign workers is both profitable and costly for the receiving countries. The benefits of importing foreign labor are fairly clear: foreigners provide a basic workforce as well as specialists to compensate for the limited number of nationals with required skills and attitudes, stimulate the domestic consumption of goods supplied by local merchants, and boost local property markets. The costs, although much more difficult to estimate, consist of salaries, and the increased spending required to expand the educational and health services, housing, and roads, communications and other elements of infrastructure in order to accommodate the needs of the newcomers. Moreover, the foreign labor force is a substantial drain of the GCC states’ hard currency earnings, with remittances to migrants’ home countries amounting to $27 billion each year.

 

 

On the other hand, foreigners benefit from their employment in the GCC countries. They are usually able to find better-paid jobs than they would have at home, enjoy a high standard of living, and often have a chance for a quick career advancement. In particular, they are able to save large sums of money and send or take them home, often significantly stimulating the economy in their home countries. The presence of a large number of expatriates constitutes, however, a major threat to the

stability of the GCC countries; it endangers the culture, influences the structure of society and, furthermore, has an impact on the foreign policy

 

 

***phew***Now over to a small place nearby..

 

 

Mumbai, is the capital of the Indian state of Maharashtra and the financial capital of India. With an estimated population of thirteen million, it is the most populous city in India and the most populous city in the world. Mumbai is the commercial and entertainment centre of India, generating 5% of India’s GDP and accounting for 25% of industrial output, 40% of maritime trade, and 70% of capital transactions to India’s economy. Mumbai is India’s largest city. It serves as an important economic hub of the country, contributing 10% of all factory employment, 40% of all income tax collections, 60% of all customs duty collections, 20% of all central excise tax collections, 40% of India’s foreign trade and Rs. 40 billion in corporate taxes. Mumbai’s per-capita income is Rs. 48,954  which is almost three times the national average.

 

 

The late 1970s witnessed a construction boom and a significant influx of migrants, which saw Mumbai overtake Kolkata as India’s most populous city. This influx caused unrest among local Maharashtrians who worried about the loss of culture, jobs, and language. State and central government employees make up a large percentage of the city’s workforce. Mumbai also has a large unskilled and semi-skilled labour population, who primarily earn their livelihood as hawkers, taxi drivers, mechanics and other such blue collar professions. The port and shipping industry, too, employs many residents, directly or indirectly. In Dharavi, in central Mumbai, there is an increasingly large recycling industry, processing recyclable waste from other parts of the city; the district has an estimated 15,000 single-room factories.The media industry is another major employer in Mumbai.

 

 

According to the 1991 census, the linguistic groups’ demographics are: Maharashtrians (53%), Gujaratis (22%), North Indians (17%), Tamils (3%), Sindhis (3%), Tuluvas/Kannadigas (2%) and others.There are 875 females to every 1,000 males, lower than the national average

 

 

Like other metropolises in the developing world, Mumbai suffers from the same major urbanization problems seen in many fast growing cities in developing countries: widespread poverty and unemployment, poor public health and poor civic and educational standards for a large section of the population. With available space at a premium, Mumbai residents often reside in cramped, relatively expensive housing, usually far from workplaces, and therefore requiring long commutes on crowded mass transit, or clogged roadways. According to 2001 census of India, about 54% of the city’s population lives in slums.

 

Now tell me whether Raj Thackery makes some sense to you..I am not supporting his means of putting forward his thoughts,but I must say that I do support his cause and there are many many marathis who support him irrespective of his violent means because they feel the haven’t been given justice in their own land..Now you can claim that my example of Qatar as a disrupted economy due to migrants ,is out of scope and that Maharashtra and Bihar and Kerala are all parts of same country..Agreed..But don’t forget that states were formed based on linguistic factors and every citizen has more claim over his own state than an outsider.We are yet to evolve into the virtual boundary-less country where we can move around freely..When UP and Bihar or Kerala cannot provide for its own people,people like Lallu have no right to call Raj  ‘a mental case’..Lallu is a gone case bcoz he has eaten  and grabbed as much as possible from Bihar..Also,I was reading that Lallu was not takig into concern any of the petitions given by people regarding railway recruitment..So,why should marathis suffers simply because neighboring states are ruled by lazy greedy politicians who care least and provide for its own people.

 

 

And yeah,I know its unfair to ask people to leave who made up lives here ( Qatar or Mumbai for instance) after they have contributed as much as possible and asking them to leave once the economy is stable is mean..But life is all about survival of fittest..So when there is imbalance in people moving in and out of societies,we will have clashes over the same..And finally,there is something called central government,but sorry,they have no time to deal with petty issues like these.. 

 

 

Lastly the drama by Raj Bhaiyya is all about securing a seat in next elections and he care least for real cause ..If he had cared,he’ld not have caused 30 lakh rupee loss for his ‘soil’ in one single day..So,this post is not about hailing Raj,but the cause behind it..Afterall,I think that all non marathis should move out of Mumbai and teach mumbaikars a lesson on learnig themselves “How independent they are”..lol..Trust me,I am sure Raj and allies will knock door of all those people who left and ask them to come back..Society is all about giving and taking,well atleast that’s how I learned it..

 

 

p.s:

 

I just knew he had “Z “ grade security protection till today..uh..Indeed a secular India..Jai hind..And oh yeah,Raj is not much bothered about western cultures like pubs and nightouts intruding his culture,rather he is bothered about ‘rest of India’-culture diluting Maharashtra..strange…

 

 

**phew**I took 4-5 hours to read articles and write this 2-page rant..The post seems too long..I hope atleast few people will bother to read the entire post..Do share your views..Good day.. 

Posted in World Around | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 22 Comments »

What’s up with ‘Holding Hands’ all of a sudden!!!

Posted by Nimmy on October 21, 2008

Something interesting happening these days..

Lot of incoming Google searches on “holding hands” since last 2-3 days..Just see the pattern of search words..indeed interesting ..

21/10/08

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20/10/08

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19/10/08
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I guess somebody in some corner of thw world has got an assignment or project on “Holding Hands..”..lol..I am glad my post is of some productive use..But sadly,not even a single comment :-(
I always wonder why there happens a large difference between visits and comments..Guess people are lazy…I just love getting comments…
**sigh**

Posted in Random Rants | Tagged: | 14 Comments »

Indian Economy-What’s happening inside?

Posted by Nimmy on October 20, 2008

An excerpt from an interesting article…

As the global economic turmoil hits home, triggering trepidation across sectors, Outlook examines exactly where India stands..

 

 

Real Estate: Credit shortage delaying projects. Most affected: SEZs, townships, industrial parks.

Aviation: Airlines put off expansion plans, some resort to alliances and mull layoffs.

BPOs/ITES: Temporary setback here as US-based clients cut costs, some captive units are closed.

Infrastructure: Increased financing costs impacting projects. Slow growth seen in cement, steel.

Banks/Financial Services: Banks facing cash crunch. Low corporate earnings keep investors away from MFs.

Retail/Consumer Goods: Sagging stockmarkets, high cost of money act as deterrents. Only hope: festive sales.

Automobiles: Increased cost of loans, buyers pulling back purchase plans, likely to affect growth.

***

Where You Stand

Investments

  • Bank Deposits- Tops the list of concerns, but collapse of any bank highly unlikely. Stay put: while cash is king, keeping it at home is not a good idea.
  • Stocks- With high risk and volatility, tough to bet the market bottom. Think long-term; courageous investors should focus on liquid, large-cap stocks.
  • Mutual Funds- For equity, think long-term and large-cap funds; conservative investors should look at government securities or fixed maturity plans.
  • Gold- Volatile and rising, looks attractive in these uncertain times, but the upside may be limited.
  • Housing-Makes sense to wait as prices will fall further; desperate builders are not finding many buyers.

Housing Loans

  • Interest rates expected to come down, so wait a while; good time to pre-pay part of the loan if it is not tax-efficient.

Jobs

  • Increment- Big impact across the board, expect most companies to be conservative now.
  • Hiring- Some sectors will be hit; across the board, employees will take more time, seek to bring costs under control.
  • Placements- Too early to say, beginning to become a bit of a question mark.
  • Bonuses- Will be hit badly without doubt, particularly for services like consulting, banking and financial services.

Spending

  • Prices- Crashing commodity prices should reduce headline inflation over time, for now household essentials remain highly priced
  • Diwali- Spending sentiment is subdued, particularly for cars; but other consumer goods companies say Diwali is far from a washout.
  • Travel- With dipping business travel, this segment is a major casualty of subdued sentiment.

 

Is our banking system under threat?

 

 

The simple answer is no. “Thanks to conservative regulations,” says former RBI governor Bimal Jalan, “I don’t think Indian banks are at all vulnerable.” What he is saying is that the RBI controls the amount of money banks keep aside as safeguards as well as the amount of debt they can attach to a unit of capital.Yes, there are challenges. Trust, the cornerstone of banking, has been completely shattered worldwide. In India too, banks don’t trust each other, let alone clients and customers. “If we’ve reached our limits on sectors for the quarter, we’re not looking at fresh loans till the next quarter,” says a senior banker at a leading public sector bank. Remember, toxic assets and choking of liquidity are two reasons why banks fail. So the fears over inadequate cash to oil the banking system are very real

 

Are more jobs on the line?

Nothing gets people more scared than the dreaded R word—retrenchment. One only has to look at the shock waves that followed Jet Airways’ announcement that it would lay off 1,900 contractual employees. Reacting to protests galore, an “emotional” Jet Airways chairman Naresh Goyal was quick to reverse his decision. Interestingly, a senior labor ministry official says “the law doesn’t say anything about such a situation (retrenchment)”. And there are signs there’s more to come.

While the aviation industry is expected to lose $2 bn this financial year, the BPO industry, one of India’s largest recruiters, is also on the backfoot with recruitment down to half of last year. As no one is willing to take risks and expand, growth is down from 40 per cent to 19-20 per cent. The air of disquiet is visible in the dismal manufacturing sector figures for August as well. While many argue about the accuracy of these numbers, it’s a telling indicator that the funds crunch is hitting home in key capital goods sectors. Soon, jobs will be on the line here too, and if the September numbers for manufacturing are negative—as some bankers estimate—that could happen sooner rather than later

 

Are the stockmarkets over-reacting?

If you ask a broker to react to the current market situation, he’ll tell you that the light at the end of the tunnel only seems to be from an oncoming train. “Given that no one knows the dimensions of the problem, finding a solution to it is even more difficult. Every time the regulators make announcements to mitigate the situation, we’re all wondering if it’s enough,” says Aseem Dhru, CEO, HDFC Securities. The Sensex has lost over 50 per cent in value this year. Despite this staggering number, most market watchers feel it’s par for the course given the level of uncertainty and the extent of systemic issues the global crisis has thrown up. 
Some, like former BSE executive director M.R. Mayya feel the extent of reaction is unwarranted given that India is fundamentally sound and the banking system is well regulated. “We need to stop and see the big picture. Are we going to be impacted? Definitely. But is it going to take us under? Definitely not. We will recover,” he stresses. SEBI chief C.B. Bhave also emphasises that extremism at both ends of the market spectrum needs to be curbed. “At 20000 levels, the sky is the limit and at 9000-10000, it’s bottomless. The reality lies somewhere in between.” Either way, recovery isn’t going to be easy and will take time

 

Are real estate prices really falling?

 

Till a year ago, it was one of India’s most vibrant growth sectors. But in the last few months, that has changed completely Most players in the industry had taken huge exposures and invested in land at exorbitant rates, expecting to square that investment with sales at a high price. But demand from consumers has sagged because of high interest rates as well as buyers waiting for the market to stabilise. “A large segment of real estate in India is housing- and EMI-dependent. As the consumer is affected in the present financial crisis, the demand side is seriously affected,” says Arvind Nandan, director, consultancy services, with real estate consultants Cushman & Wakefield.

Also, with credit becoming both expensive and rare, many of the real estate giants are sitting on the land, calling off projects, or postponing them indefinitely. Recent housing projects—albeit small ones—by the large players to garner some liquidity have met with poor demand. It doesn’t help matters that NRI-fuelled demand has dried up completely. Funding agencies and private equity funds have become more cautious and are not ready to put money into new ventures. Experts believe that with demand falling, developers would start to squeeze margins, a move that will see a rationalisation of prices across the country.

 

Will prices come down soon?

In an election year, that’s the most important question. As the RBI takes steps to ease money supply within the financial sector, what happens to the government’s battle against headline inflation, currently down to 11.44 per cent? That’s still very much in double digits. Underlining that there is no cookbook recipe to resolve all issues, Shankar Acharya, Reserve Bank chair professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, says, “While people have not forgotten inflationary pressures, these problems—equity crunch, global slowdown—are looming larger.”

 

P.S:

In no way I claim credit for the article except for copy pasting from the link..I don’t know if there is any copyright issues involved,but my intention is just to spread the word and it was few days since I was trying to understand the whole scenario and when stumbled upon this article,thought of sharing..Pls read the article in complete by reffering to the link provided..

 

 

 

 

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